Odds of Death

[wrightme43]

Next time someone pops off with your going to die on that motorcycle, or the famous, sucicycle, or the wonderful, donorcycle. You can respond with these little gems.

http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds_dying.jpg

Oh like
1 in 84 people die in car wrecks.
1 in 119 people die by suicide.
1 in 218 die by falling.

You are more likely to drown or be ran over walking than dieing in a motorcycle accident.


Of course if you never ride a bike you cant die in motorcycle wreck, but hell we if you live thru everything, cancer, stroke, or heart disease gets you.

:sport:

[shaggystyle]

Hate to do this, but statistics is one of my things, so.......
According to the 2003 Transportation Bureau numbers (year corresponds to the death stats), there were 236,760,033 registered motor vehicles in the US. Of that number 135,669,897 were passenger vehicles (~57.3%) and only 5,370,035 were motorcycles (~2.3%).

So from the numbers provided at the link above we get a corresponding death total for passengar vehicles of 20,011 (sum of Occupant of three-wheeled motor vehicle, Occupant of pick-up truck or van, Bus occupant, Occupant of streetcar). So based on these numbers the odds of dying (in 2004 only) in a passenger vehicle were 20,011 / 135,669,897 = 0.00015% (really freaking low). The number of motorcycle deaths in 2004 was 3,676 making the odds of buying the farm 3,676 / 5,370,035 = 0.00068% or roughly 4.5 times higher than with passenger vehicles.

Where the numbers from the link above get kind of iffy are when they calculate life-time odds of death. For this they just multiplied the one year odds by the average life expectancy (77.5 years). This doesn't really work for motorcycles since most people (like myself) don't buy a motorcycle until they are a certain age. However, if you also consider the fact that most (but not all) motorcyclists still drive the cars more than they ride their bikes, then the odds shift to closer to 12-18 times more likely to die on a motorcycle given an equal amount of time on both.

I could ramble on and on and on and on..... about how things like wearing a helmet, taking a safety course, NOT DRINKING AND RIDING!!!, etc affect these numbers. But as a base number, 4.5x is a decent rule of thumb. Sorry to get all nerdy and ruin everyones day....but I'm a geek and I like to play with numbers.

Oh, and here are my refernces:
http://www.bts.gov/publications/nati...ble_01_11.html
(and since the BoT site is down for maintenance right now, here's the google cache'd copy)
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache...lnk&cd=1&gl=us

[wrightme43]

They are very iffy. LOL
If you never get on a bike you cant wreck one, if you never swim, and only take showers you probley wont drown. If you dont drink or fly, you cant od on alcohol or die in a plane crash.

Its just funny to be able to tell people after they say your going to die on that bike, that one in 84 people die in car wrecks, and one 1020 people die in motorcycle wrecks. Why dont you sell your car?

Everybody knows it not accurate, but most statistics arent.
They apply to groups and not idividuals.

I mean I always wear all my gear. I dont drink or do any drugs at all. I dont stunt. I keep my brake lever covered.
Helmet use statistics are based on just that. Not if it is full face, 3/4, modular, or those little beanies.